CC number start orders?

Josh Spivey

2013-11-11

OK. I¹ll do it since we¹re headed to this post eventually anyway! Thank you
to Brad and the race promoters for trying to come up with a system that is
pretty dang reasonable and gives us all a reason to pretend it¹s something
other than our own genetics and effort that makes us slower than the next
guy. #highroad #runonsentencesrule

On 11/11/13 2:41 PM, "matt Savage" wrote:

> I agree with some of these guys... It doesn't always matter where you start
> cause you'll always finish in about the same spot every race.  Doesn't matter
> if its mtb, short track, or cross, start in the front row or the back...
>  Every singlespeed race I've done I've finish just about top dead center.
>  Even yesterday, I stopped to pound 3 beers, grab some cash, and even ducked
> out to take a piss (yes, in the jon...)  and I still finished just about in
> the middle...
>
> As for that sandbaggin teammate of Spivey's...  He got upgraded...  heh,heh...
>
> -Matt Savage
>
> Instagram: @yeahdude1976
> Twitter:      @Coldandhungry
> Tumblr:     www.wetsnap.com
>
>
>
>
> On Mon, Nov 11, 2013 at 2:26 PM, John Gill wrote:
>> While I agree with you that this is the case if you are in the top top of the
>> field...especially one as mixed as the C cat...I think that the importance of
>> start position is amplified by each upgrade. I know that after talking with A
>> racers (men and women) and going from C to B myself this year, it seems that
>> if you are in the right field (not one too fast or too slow for you) once you
>> hit the first choke point, your final position is more or less set. Like, if
>> you hit the first turn in top 20...that is where you finish. If you hit the
>> turn in the back 20, that is probably where you end up.
>> I think that if you are consistently able to start at the back and work your
>> way all the way to the front...you need to upgrade to find some competition
>> at your own level. Unless you are Jeremy Powers or Sven Nys both of whom I
>> have seen (on tv) drop or break a chain then work from last up to the podium.
>> But where would they upgrade to?
>> There is a reason that everyone has a callup order...from beginners to pros.
>> It matters.
>> I would like to see some data to see if my understanding is ACTUALLY the way
>> it works. So, if anyone puts that together...sweet!
>> John
>>
>>
>> On Mon, Nov 11, 2013 at 1:57 PM, Josh Spivey
>> wrote:
>>> I tend to agree with Adam here. If you can stay upright and generally pass,
>>> rather than get jammed up, 45 minutes should be enough time for you to get
>>> up to your natural spot. I have started all over the place, and generally
>>> finish in approximately the same spot. If you get stuck in traffic or crash,
>>> you will finish slightly further back. Yesterday I got mowed over twice. I
>>> have two different sized chainring scars in two different places of my body,
>>>  dropped my own chain, slowed down to make sure another crasher was ok after
>>> we tangled bars on the asphalt. After all of that, I still didn¹t finish
>>> ³that² far back from what I should have.
>>>
>>> If I could start in the last group every week, I¹d get free beer and an lame
>>> excuse. Sounds rad to me. As it stands I¹m sober and still suck.
>>>
>>> One of my teammates started near the back at Washington county in C¹s and
>>> won. Then he got a callup and won again yesterday.
>>>
>>> If you¹re good enough, you can get through. If not, enjoy as many passes as
>>> you can and try to get a better place than your age!
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On 11/11/13 1:29 PM, "adam holt" >> > wrote:
>>>
>>>> Awesome!  I tend, however, to believe in a certain level of stasis (if
>>>> that's the correct term?).  I started once this season dead last, after
>>>> doing the child handoff to mom who was just finishing the race before me.
>>>>  I finished 47th out of 77.  The next week, I started about 20th - I had
>>>> the second starting number that week.  I finished 45th out of 75.
>>>>  Basically, starting about 55 places higher, and I finished in the same
>>>> spot.  Granted, two races does not make a satisfactory sample size, and I
>>>> think it would be interesting to see any correlations....
>>>>  
>>>> Adam
>>>>  
>>>>> > Date: Mon, 11 Nov 2013 13:20:12 -0800
>>>>> > From: andy_kaylor@yahoo.com
>>>>> > To: obra@list.obra.org
>>>>> > Subject: Re: [OBRA Chat] CC number start orders?
>>>>> >
>>>>> > I'm curious about this myself, but mostly just because I'm a geek.
>>>>> >
>>>>> > A few years ago I did an analysis and found that the start order
>>>>> distribution was much worse than you'd expect from simple random
>>>>> selection.  I even proposed an alternate algorithm that would improve the
>>>>> situation.  Someone else did an analysis and demonstrated that I finish
>>>>> approximately last regardless of where I start.
>>>>> >
>>>>> > As a 6 this season, I've started in the next-to-last slot twice and last
>>>>> once.  I'm not sure what the others were, but I know a couple were toward
>>>>> the back.  On top of that, I had the beer number for one of the three
>>>>> singlespeed races I've done.  I wasn't complaining yesterday when I
>>>>> stopped by River City to pick up my two six packs, but I guess I am
>>>>> complaining a bit now.
>>>>> >
>>>>> > I was the very last person on the course at the start of the Master C
>>>>> field yesterday, and I'm telling myself that it made a huge impact on my
>>>>> finish position.  Facts will not persuade me to accept an alternate
>>>>> opinion.  I might have to arrive late at the starting line next week in
>>>>> order to maintain my delusion.
>>>>> >
>>>>> > -Andy
>>>>> >
>>>>> >
>>>>> > Benjamin Drucker wrote:
>>>>>> > > Anyone keeping track of the last-digit start order of the CC races? I
>>>>>> > > remember last year someone used that data to make some interesting
>>>>>> graphs
>>>>>> > > of how the start order affects the results.
>>>>>> > >
>>>>>> > > What have the orders been so far this season?
>>>>> > _______________________________________________
>>>>> > OBRA mailing list
>>>>> > obra@list.obra.org
>>>>> > http://list.obra.org/mailman/listinfo/obra
>>>>> > Unsubscribe: obra-unsubscribe@list.obra.org
>>>>>
>>>>        
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>> OBRA mailing list
>>>> obra@list.obra.org
>>>> http://list.obra.org/mailman/listinfo/obra
>>>> Unsubscribe: obra-unsubscribe@list.obra.org
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>          -------------------------------------------------------------------
>>> ---------------------------------------
>>>> Joshua Spivey // director
>>>> email: josh@we-are-transport.com
>>>>    office: 971.255.0505 cell: 971.570.9662
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> TRANSPORT // online video creative and strategy
>>>> 1925 NW Overton Suite 101 | Portland, OR | 97209 | USA
>>>> >
>>>>
>>>> Vimeo Channel  | Twitter: transport_1
>>>>
>>>> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>> -------------------------------
>>>
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> OBRA mailing list
>>> obra@list.obra.org
>>> http://list.obra.org/mailman/listinfo/obra
>>> Unsubscribe: obra-unsubscribe@list.obra.org
>>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> OBRA mailing list
>> obra@list.obra.org
>> http://list.obra.org/mailman/listinfo/obra
>> Unsubscribe: obra-unsubscribe@list.obra.org
>>
>
>


----------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------
> Joshua Spivey // director
> email: josh@we-are-transport.com office: 971.255.0505 cell: 971.570.9662
>
> TRANSPORT // online video creative and strategy
> 1925 NW Overton Suite 101 | Portland, OR | 97209 | USA
>
>
> Vimeo Channel | Twitter: transport_1
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> ----------------------------


Paul Souders

2013-11-11

This isn’t an “analysis” as such but a fun visualization. Last year I made a heatmap showing staging number (green to red) versus finish position for Alpenrose, where we staged in order from one (first) to zero (last).

http://static.axoplasm.com/alpenrose.php (more concisely: http://www.flickr.com/photos/64106317@N00/8068722851). I tried to mark riders with callups (darkest green) but missed a couple, in particular #588 and #397.

I think the Most Improved Rider at Alpenrose 2012 was #519 who finished 37th. Also check out the clump of guys who fought to around 50th. (Alpenrose might be the most extreme example though.) So: for a race without a natural sorting feature early in the race (i.e. a long hill or wide sprint), in a field of 200 riders: if you start in the back third and fight very hard you might climb to ~30th place. If you’re stronger than THAT you won’t be in Cs very long.

Anecdotally: I had primo staging at Rainier this year and it’s made my season. I’m usually a top-third racer but this year I had a few Top-10 finishes which I never had before. I’ll entertain the possibility that I’m actually getting better but that’s not what the hecklers tell me. But it feels like starting at the front of the race, I work less hard for better results.

All this said, racing is what it is. It isn’t always “equitable.” What it is, is FAIR. Everyone has the same odds of getting a good random staging at Alpenrose or Rainier and thus having an easier series. I consider the staging a course feature. This year I realized I’d have good staging for Rainier (where I usually do well anyway) so I totally rewrote my plan for the season. Part of my long strategy became, how do I capitalize on the big bag of points I know I'll get from a single race?

// Paul Souders
// @axoplasm

On Nov 11, 2013, at 2:26 PM, John Gill wrote:

> While I agree with you that this is the case if you are in the top top of the field...especially one as mixed as the C cat...I think that the importance of start position is amplified by each upgrade. I know that after talking with A racers (men and women) and going from C to B myself this year, it seems that if you are in the right field (not one too fast or too slow for you) once you hit the first choke point, your final position is more or less set. Like, if you hit the first turn in top 20...that is where you finish. If you hit the turn in the back 20, that is probably where you end up.
> I think that if you are consistently able to start at the back and work your way all the way to the front...you need to upgrade to find some competition at your own level. Unless you are Jeremy Powers or Sven Nys both of whom I have seen (on tv) drop or break a chain then work from last up to the podium. But where would they upgrade to?
> There is a reason that everyone has a callup order...from beginners to pros. It matters.
> I would like to see some data to see if my understanding is ACTUALLY the way it works. So, if anyone puts that together...sweet!
> John
>
>
> On Mon, Nov 11, 2013 at 1:57 PM, Josh Spivey wrote:
> I tend to agree with Adam here. If you can stay upright and generally pass, rather than get jammed up, 45 minutes should be enough time for you to get up to your natural spot. I have started all over the place, and generally finish in approximately the same spot. If you get stuck in traffic or crash, you will finish slightly further back. Yesterday I got mowed over twice. I have two different sized chainring scars in two different places of my body, dropped my own chain, slowed down to make sure another crasher was ok after we tangled bars on the asphalt. After all of that, I still didn’t finish “that” far back from what I should have.
>
> If I could start in the last group every week, I’d get free beer and an lame excuse. Sounds rad to me. As it stands I’m sober and still suck.
>
> One of my teammates started near the back at Washington county in C’s and won. Then he got a callup and won again yesterday.
>
> If you’re good enough, you can get through. If not, enjoy as many passes as you can and try to get a better place than your age!
>
>
>
>
>
> On 11/11/13 1:29 PM, "adam holt" wrote:
>
> Awesome! I tend, however, to believe in a certain level of stasis (if that's the correct term?). I started once this season dead last, after doing the child handoff to mom who was just finishing the race before me. I finished 47th out of 77. The next week, I started about 20th - I had the second starting number that week. I finished 45th out of 75. Basically, starting about 55 places higher, and I finished in the same spot. Granted, two races does not make a satisfactory sample size, and I think it would be interesting to see any correlations....
>
> Adam
>
> > Date: Mon, 11 Nov 2013 13:20:12 -0800
> > From: andy_kaylor@yahoo.com
> > To: obra@list.obra.org
> > Subject: Re: [OBRA Chat] CC number start orders?
> >
> > I'm curious about this myself, but mostly just because I'm a geek.
> >
> > A few years ago I did an analysis and found that the start order distribution was much worse than you'd expect from simple random selection. I even proposed an alternate algorithm that would improve the situation. Someone else did an analysis and demonstrated that I finish approximately last regardless of where I start.
> >
> > As a 6 this season, I've started in the next-to-last slot twice and last once. I'm not sure what the others were, but I know a couple were toward the back. On top of that, I had the beer number for one of the three singlespeed races I've done. I wasn't complaining yesterday when I stopped by River City to pick up my two six packs, but I guess I am complaining a bit now.
> >
> > I was the very last person on the course at the start of the Master C field yesterday, and I'm telling myself that it made a huge impact on my finish position. Facts will not persuade me to accept an alternate opinion. I might have to arrive late at the starting line next week in order to maintain my delusion.
> >
> > -Andy
> >
> >
> > Benjamin Drucker wrote:
> > > Anyone keeping track of the last-digit start order of the CC races? I
> > > remember last year someone used that data to make some interesting graphs
> > > of how the start order affects the results.
> > >
> > > What have the orders been so far this season?
> > _______________________________________________
> > OBRA mailing list
> > obra@list.obra.org
> > http://list.obra.org/mailman/listinfo/obra
> > Unsubscribe: obra-unsubscribe@list.obra.org
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> OBRA mailing list
> obra@list.obra.org
> http://list.obra.org/mailman/listinfo/obra
> Unsubscribe: obra-unsubscribe@list.obra.org
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Joshua Spivey // director
> email: josh@we-are-transport.com office: 971.255.0505 cell: 971.570.9662
>
> TRANSPORT // online video creative and strategy
> 1925 NW Overton Suite 101 | Portland, OR | 97209 | USA
>
> Vimeo Channel | Twitter: transport_1
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> OBRA mailing list
> obra@list.obra.org
> http://list.obra.org/mailman/listinfo/obra
> Unsubscribe: obra-unsubscribe@list.obra.org
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> OBRA mailing list
> obra@list.obra.org
> http://list.obra.org/mailman/listinfo/obra
> Unsubscribe: obra-unsubscribe@list.obra.org


matt Savage

2013-11-11

I agree with some of these guys... It doesn't always matter where you start
cause you'll always finish in about the same spot every race. Doesn't
matter if its mtb, short track, or cross, start in the front row or the
back... Every singlespeed race I've done I've finish just about top dead
center. Even yesterday, I stopped to pound 3 beers, grab some cash, and
even ducked out to take a piss (yes, in the jon...) and I still finished
just about in the middle...

As for that sandbaggin teammate of Spivey's... He got upgraded...
heh,heh...

-Matt Savage

Instagram: @yeahdude1976
Twitter: @Coldandhungry
Tumblr: www.wetsnap.com

On Mon, Nov 11, 2013 at 2:26 PM, John Gill wrote:

> While I agree with you that this is the case if you are in the top top of
> the field...especially one as mixed as the C cat...I think that the
> importance of start position is amplified by each upgrade. I know that
> after talking with A racers (men and women) and going from C to B myself
> this year, it seems that if you are in the right field (not one too fast or
> too slow for you) once you hit the first choke point, your final position
> is more or less set. Like, if you hit the first turn in top 20...that is
> where you finish. If you hit the turn in the back 20, that is probably
> where you end up.
> I think that if you are consistently able to start at the back and work
> your way all the way to the front...you need to upgrade to find some
> competition at your own level. Unless you are Jeremy Powers or Sven Nys
> both of whom I have seen (on tv) drop or break a chain then work from last
> up to the podium. But where would they upgrade to?
> There is a reason that everyone has a callup order...from beginners to
> pros. It matters.
> I would like to see some data to see if my understanding is ACTUALLY the
> way it works. So, if anyone puts that together...sweet!
> John
>
>
> On Mon, Nov 11, 2013 at 1:57 PM, Josh Spivey wrote:
>
>> I tend to agree with Adam here. If you can stay upright and generally
>> pass, rather than get jammed up, 45 minutes should be enough time for you
>> to get up to your natural spot. I have started all over the place, and
>> generally finish in approximately the same spot. If you get stuck in
>> traffic or crash, you will finish slightly further back. Yesterday I got
>> mowed over twice. I have two different sized chainring scars in two
>> different places of my body, dropped my own chain, slowed down to make
>> sure another crasher was ok after we tangled bars on the asphalt. After all
>> of that, I still didn’t finish “that” far back from what I should have.
>>
>> If I could start in the last group every week, I’d get free beer and an
>> lame excuse. Sounds rad to me. As it stands I’m sober and still suck.
>>
>> One of my teammates started near the back at Washington county in C’s and
>> won. Then he got a callup and won again yesterday.
>>
>> If you’re good enough, you can get through. If not, enjoy as many passes
>> as you can and try to get a better place than your age!
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On 11/11/13 1:29 PM, "adam holt" wrote:
>>
>> Awesome! I tend, however, to believe in a certain level of stasis (if
>> that's the correct term?). I started once this season dead last, after
>> doing the child handoff to mom who was just finishing the race before me.
>> I finished 47th out of 77. The next week, I started about 20th - I had
>> the second starting number that week. I finished 45th out of 75.
>> Basically, starting about 55 places higher, and I finished in the same
>> spot. Granted, two races does not make a satisfactory sample size, and I
>> think it would be interesting to see any correlations....
>>
>> Adam
>>
>> > Date: Mon, 11 Nov 2013 13:20:12 -0800
>> > From: andy_kaylor@yahoo.com
>> > To: obra@list.obra.org
>> > Subject: Re: [OBRA Chat] CC number start orders?
>> >
>> > I'm curious about this myself, but mostly just because I'm a geek.
>> >
>> > A few years ago I did an analysis and found that the start order
>> distribution was much worse than you'd expect from simple random selection.
>> I even proposed an alternate algorithm that would improve the situation.
>> Someone else did an analysis and demonstrated that I finish approximately
>> last regardless of where I start.
>> >
>> > As a 6 this season, I've started in the next-to-last slot twice and
>> last once. I'm not sure what the others were, but I know a couple were
>> toward the back. On top of that, I had the beer number for one of the
>> three singlespeed races I've done. I wasn't complaining yesterday when I
>> stopped by River City to pick up my two six packs, but I guess I am
>> complaining a bit now.
>> >
>> > I was the very last person on the course at the start of the Master C
>> field yesterday, and I'm telling myself that it made a huge impact on my
>> finish position. Facts will not persuade me to accept an alternate
>> opinion. I might have to arrive late at the starting line next week in
>> order to maintain my delusion.
>> >
>> > -Andy
>> >
>> >
>> > Benjamin Drucker wrote:
>> > > Anyone keeping track of the last-digit start order of the CC races? I
>> > > remember last year someone used that data to make some interesting
>> graphs
>> > > of how the start order affects the results.
>> > >
>> > > What have the orders been so far this season?
>> > _______________________________________________
>> > OBRA mailing list
>> > obra@list.obra.org
>> > http://list.obra.org/mailman/listinfo/obra
>> > Unsubscribe: obra-unsubscribe@list.obra.org
>>
>>
>> ------------------------------
>> _______________________________________________
>> OBRA mailing list
>> obra@list.obra.org
>> http://list.obra.org/mailman/listinfo/obra
>> Unsubscribe: obra-unsubscribe@list.obra.org
>>
>>
>> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>
>> *Joshua Spivey* // director
>> *email*: *josh@we-are-transport.com *
>> *office*: 971.255.0505 *cell*: 971.570.9662
>>
>> *TRANSPORT* // online video creative and strategy
>> 1925 NW Overton Suite 101 | Portland, OR | 97209 | USA <*http://we-are-transport.com/
>> *>
>>
>> *Vimeo Channel* <*http://www.vimeo.com/transportpdx
>> *> | *Twitter*: transport_1 <*http://www.twitter.com/transport_1
>> *>
>>
>> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> OBRA mailing list
>> obra@list.obra.org
>> http://list.obra.org/mailman/listinfo/obra
>> Unsubscribe: obra-unsubscribe@list.obra.org
>>
>>
>
> _______________________________________________
> OBRA mailing list
> obra@list.obra.org
> http://list.obra.org/mailman/listinfo/obra
> Unsubscribe: obra-unsubscribe@list.obra.org
>
>


John Gill

2013-11-11

While I agree with you that this is the case if you are in the top top of
the field...especially one as mixed as the C cat...I think that the
importance of start position is amplified by each upgrade. I know that
after talking with A racers (men and women) and going from C to B myself
this year, it seems that if you are in the right field (not one too fast or
too slow for you) once you hit the first choke point, your final position
is more or less set. Like, if you hit the first turn in top 20...that is
where you finish. If you hit the turn in the back 20, that is probably
where you end up.
I think that if you are consistently able to start at the back and work
your way all the way to the front...you need to upgrade to find some
competition at your own level. Unless you are Jeremy Powers or Sven Nys
both of whom I have seen (on tv) drop or break a chain then work from last
up to the podium. But where would they upgrade to?
There is a reason that everyone has a callup order...from beginners to
pros. It matters.
I would like to see some data to see if my understanding is ACTUALLY the
way it works. So, if anyone puts that together...sweet!
John

On Mon, Nov 11, 2013 at 1:57 PM, Josh Spivey wrote:

> I tend to agree with Adam here. If you can stay upright and generally
> pass, rather than get jammed up, 45 minutes should be enough time for you
> to get up to your natural spot. I have started all over the place, and
> generally finish in approximately the same spot. If you get stuck in
> traffic or crash, you will finish slightly further back. Yesterday I got
> mowed over twice. I have two different sized chainring scars in two
> different places of my body, dropped my own chain, slowed down to make
> sure another crasher was ok after we tangled bars on the asphalt. After all
> of that, I still didn’t finish “that” far back from what I should have.
>
> If I could start in the last group every week, I’d get free beer and an
> lame excuse. Sounds rad to me. As it stands I’m sober and still suck.
>
> One of my teammates started near the back at Washington county in C’s and
> won. Then he got a callup and won again yesterday.
>
> If you’re good enough, you can get through. If not, enjoy as many passes
> as you can and try to get a better place than your age!
>
>
>
>
>
> On 11/11/13 1:29 PM, "adam holt" wrote:
>
> Awesome! I tend, however, to believe in a certain level of stasis (if
> that's the correct term?). I started once this season dead last, after
> doing the child handoff to mom who was just finishing the race before me.
> I finished 47th out of 77. The next week, I started about 20th - I had
> the second starting number that week. I finished 45th out of 75.
> Basically, starting about 55 places higher, and I finished in the same
> spot. Granted, two races does not make a satisfactory sample size, and I
> think it would be interesting to see any correlations....
>
> Adam
>
> > Date: Mon, 11 Nov 2013 13:20:12 -0800
> > From: andy_kaylor@yahoo.com
> > To: obra@list.obra.org
> > Subject: Re: [OBRA Chat] CC number start orders?
> >
> > I'm curious about this myself, but mostly just because I'm a geek.
> >
> > A few years ago I did an analysis and found that the start order
> distribution was much worse than you'd expect from simple random selection.
> I even proposed an alternate algorithm that would improve the situation.
> Someone else did an analysis and demonstrated that I finish approximately
> last regardless of where I start.
> >
> > As a 6 this season, I've started in the next-to-last slot twice and last
> once. I'm not sure what the others were, but I know a couple were toward
> the back. On top of that, I had the beer number for one of the three
> singlespeed races I've done. I wasn't complaining yesterday when I stopped
> by River City to pick up my two six packs, but I guess I am complaining a
> bit now.
> >
> > I was the very last person on the course at the start of the Master C
> field yesterday, and I'm telling myself that it made a huge impact on my
> finish position. Facts will not persuade me to accept an alternate
> opinion. I might have to arrive late at the starting line next week in
> order to maintain my delusion.
> >
> > -Andy
> >
> >
> > Benjamin Drucker wrote:
> > > Anyone keeping track of the last-digit start order of the CC races? I
> > > remember last year someone used that data to make some interesting
> graphs
> > > of how the start order affects the results.
> > >
> > > What have the orders been so far this season?
> > _______________________________________________
> > OBRA mailing list
> > obra@list.obra.org
> > http://list.obra.org/mailman/listinfo/obra
> > Unsubscribe: obra-unsubscribe@list.obra.org
>
>
> ------------------------------
> _______________________________________________
> OBRA mailing list
> obra@list.obra.org
> http://list.obra.org/mailman/listinfo/obra
> Unsubscribe: obra-unsubscribe@list.obra.org
>
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> *Joshua Spivey* // director
> *email*: *josh@we-are-transport.com *
> *office*: 971.255.0505 *cell*: 971.570.9662
>
> *TRANSPORT* // online video creative and strategy
> 1925 NW Overton Suite 101 | Portland, OR | 97209 | USA <*http://we-are-transport.com/
> *>
>
> *Vimeo Channel* <*http://www.vimeo.com/transportpdx
> *> | *Twitter*: transport_1 <*http://www.twitter.com/transport_1
> *>
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> OBRA mailing list
> obra@list.obra.org
> http://list.obra.org/mailman/listinfo/obra
> Unsubscribe: obra-unsubscribe@list.obra.org
>
>


Josh Spivey

2013-11-11

I tend to agree with Adam here. If you can stay upright and generally pass,
rather than get jammed up, 45 minutes should be enough time for you to get
up to your natural spot. I have started all over the place, and generally
finish in approximately the same spot. If you get stuck in traffic or crash,
you will finish slightly further back. Yesterday I got mowed over twice. I
have two different sized chainring scars in two different places of my body,
dropped my own chain, slowed down to make sure another crasher was ok after
we tangled bars on the asphalt. After all of that, I still didn¹t finish
³that² far back from what I should have.

If I could start in the last group every week, I¹d get free beer and an lame
excuse. Sounds rad to me. As it stands I¹m sober and still suck.

One of my teammates started near the back at Washington county in C¹s and
won. Then he got a callup and won again yesterday.

If you¹re good enough, you can get through. If not, enjoy as many passes as
you can and try to get a better place than your age!

On 11/11/13 1:29 PM, "adam holt" wrote:

> Awesome! I tend, however, to believe in a certain level of stasis (if that's
> the correct term?). I started once this season dead last, after doing the
> child handoff to mom who was just finishing the race before me. I finished
> 47th out of 77. The next week, I started about 20th - I had the second
> starting number that week. I finished 45th out of 75. Basically, starting
> about 55 places higher, and I finished in the same spot. Granted, two races
> does not make a satisfactory sample size, and I think it would be interesting
> to see any correlations....
>
> Adam
>
>> > Date: Mon, 11 Nov 2013 13:20:12 -0800
>> > From: andy_kaylor@yahoo.com
>> > To: obra@list.obra.org
>> > Subject: Re: [OBRA Chat] CC number start orders?
>> >
>> > I'm curious about this myself, but mostly just because I'm a geek.
>> >
>> > A few years ago I did an analysis and found that the start order
>> distribution was much worse than you'd expect from simple random selection.
>> I even proposed an alternate algorithm that would improve the situation.
>> Someone else did an analysis and demonstrated that I finish approximately
>> last regardless of where I start.
>> >
>> > As a 6 this season, I've started in the next-to-last slot twice and last
>> once. I'm not sure what the others were, but I know a couple were toward the
>> back. On top of that, I had the beer number for one of the three singlespeed
>> races I've done. I wasn't complaining yesterday when I stopped by River City
>> to pick up my two six packs, but I guess I am complaining a bit now.
>> >
>> > I was the very last person on the course at the start of the Master C field
>> yesterday, and I'm telling myself that it made a huge impact on my finish
>> position. Facts will not persuade me to accept an alternate opinion. I
>> might have to arrive late at the starting line next week in order to maintain
>> my delusion.
>> >
>> > -Andy
>> >
>> >
>> > Benjamin Drucker wrote:
>>> > > Anyone keeping track of the last-digit start order of the CC races? I
>>> > > remember last year someone used that data to make some interesting
>>> graphs
>>> > > of how the start order affects the results.
>>> > >
>>> > > What have the orders been so far this season?
>> > _______________________________________________
>> > OBRA mailing list
>> > obra@list.obra.org
>> > http://list.obra.org/mailman/listinfo/obra
>> > Unsubscribe: obra-unsubscribe@list.obra.org
>
>
>
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adam holt

2013-11-11

Awesome! I tend, however, to believe in a certain level of stasis (if that's the correct term?). I started once this season dead last, after doing the child handoff to mom who was just finishing the race before me. I finished 47th out of 77. The next week, I started about 20th - I had the second starting number that week. I finished 45th out of 75. Basically, starting about 55 places higher, and I finished in the same spot. Granted, two races does not make a satisfactory sample size, and I think it would be interesting to see any correlations....

Adam

> Date: Mon, 11 Nov 2013 13:20:12 -0800
> From: andy_kaylor@yahoo.com
> To: obra@list.obra.org
> Subject: Re: [OBRA Chat] CC number start orders?
>
> I'm curious about this myself, but mostly just because I'm a geek.
>
> A few years ago I did an analysis and found that the start order distribution was much worse than you'd expect from simple random selection. I even proposed an alternate algorithm that would improve the situation. Someone else did an analysis and demonstrated that I finish approximately last regardless of where I start.
>
> As a 6 this season, I've started in the next-to-last slot twice and last once. I'm not sure what the others were, but I know a couple were toward the back. On top of that, I had the beer number for one of the three singlespeed races I've done. I wasn't complaining yesterday when I stopped by River City to pick up my two six packs, but I guess I am complaining a bit now.
>
> I was the very last person on the course at the start of the Master C field yesterday, and I'm telling myself that it made a huge impact on my finish position. Facts will not persuade me to accept an alternate opinion. I might have to arrive late at the starting line next week in order to maintain my delusion.
>
> -Andy
>
>
> Benjamin Drucker wrote:
> > Anyone keeping track of the last-digit start order of the CC races? I
> > remember last year someone used that data to make some interesting graphs
> > of how the start order affects the results.
> >
> > What have the orders been so far this season?
> _______________________________________________
> OBRA mailing list
> obra@list.obra.org
> http://list.obra.org/mailman/listinfo/obra
> Unsubscribe: obra-unsubscribe@list.obra.org


Robert Jackson

2013-11-11

Please feel free to let me know what you find from this or if you need some
spreadsheet work to analyze the results.

thanks

On Mon, Nov 11, 2013 at 12:40 PM, Benjamin Drucker <
benjamin.t.drucker@alum.mit.edu> wrote:

> Anyone keeping track of the last-digit start order of the CC races? I
> remember last year someone used that data to make some interesting graphs
> of how the start order affects the results.
>
> What have the orders been so far this season?
>
> _______________________________________________
> OBRA mailing list
> obra@list.obra.org
> http://list.obra.org/mailman/listinfo/obra
> Unsubscribe: obra-unsubscribe@list.obra.org
>
>

--
Robert M. Jackson
RMJacksonIV@gmail.com


Andy Kaylor

2013-11-11

I'm curious about this myself, but mostly just because I'm a geek.

A few years ago I did an analysis and found that the start order distribution was much worse than you'd expect from simple random selection. I even proposed an alternate algorithm that would improve the situation. Someone else did an analysis and demonstrated that I finish approximately last regardless of where I start.

As a 6 this season, I've started in the next-to-last slot twice and last once. I'm not sure what the others were, but I know a couple were toward the back. On top of that, I had the beer number for one of the three singlespeed races I've done. I wasn't complaining yesterday when I stopped by River City to pick up my two six packs, but I guess I am complaining a bit now.

I was the very last person on the course at the start of the Master C field yesterday, and I'm telling myself that it made a huge impact on my finish position. Facts will not persuade me to accept an alternate opinion. I might have to arrive late at the starting line next week in order to maintain my delusion.

-Andy

Benjamin Drucker wrote:
> Anyone keeping track of the last-digit start order of the CC races? I
> remember last year someone used that data to make some interesting graphs
> of how the start order affects the results.
>
> What have the orders been so far this season?


Benjamin Drucker

2013-11-11

Anyone keeping track of the last-digit start order of the CC races? I
remember last year someone used that data to make some interesting graphs
of how the start order affects the results.

What have the orders been so far this season?