keith prior

Worried about Lance after that ITT on Monday?

Read this fun piece of writing.....SLIGHTLY provocative! <grin>

Make what you want of it....it made me laugh.

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How Armstrong Will Defeat the Spanish Armada



By Joe Lindsey



JULY 16, 2002 With apologies to Monty Python, "Nobody expects the Spanish Imposition!"



Well, to tell the truth, we did expect the Spanish riders and teams to figure strongly in the Tour de France, although it's a bit surprising that they've been so dominant so far.



The race is all atwitter with Lance Armstrong's failure to win a time trial stage--the first time he's missed that mark since 1999--but as US Postal Service director Johan Bruyneel and Armstrong both have said, Stage 9 was not going to be a Tour-winning day. And Armstrong, who put 8 seconds into Igor Gonzalez de Galdeano, certainly didn't lose it (remember--without his fall on Stage 7 Armstrong would be in yellow by one second today).



Judging by all the folks crying out that the End is Near and the millions of hapless bastards converting their T-bonds to the gold standard, you'd think that Lance Armstrong finished 126th, not 2nd in the time trial yesterday and that Santiago Botero, Igor Gonzalez de Galdeano and what the hell, Federico Bahamontes and Miguel Indurain just for old times sake, are going to fight it out all the way to Paris--the Spanish Armada invincible again (with a Colombian in the mix just for fun).



Now is the time when I'm feverishly manning the phones, picking up double- and triple-odd bets on Armstrong from all the suckers who are desperately trying to hedge their bets mid-race and are willing to take the worst odds possible.



Then there are the know-it-alls who bet on Galdeano et al. from the outset. These are the same swine that watch the first quarter of an Important Football Game and then turn it off thinking they know who the winner will be. And they're the best kind of sucker bet. They're supremely confident now, throwing down $20 bills like they're in some topless joint in Bavaria run by Russian mobsters who give away lap dances but charge inflated bar prices, only to find out at the end of the night that they had $1,560 worth of absinthe and Jett and the house is coming after them like a Doberman starved for a week and let loose in a meat-packing plant.



It's pure Hysteria, and I'm capitalizing on it like the IMF going after a failing third-world economy, setting up friends and high-placed politicos with enough sweet deals to keep us all in carbon wheels and corner suites at the Waldorf for the rest of our natural lives, which will then be prolonged alongside Ted Williams in cryo-freeze.



Now that I've got enough money to buy a small island in the Hebrides, I'll let you in on a little secret: Lance Armstrong won't lose this Tour de France. I'm thinking he won't ever lose one again, actually, winning six and retiring just as the USPS pulls the curtain closed on its nine-year sponsorship of the team in 2004. But this year we'll deal with this year.



I'm watching the same race as you are, so what do I see? I see three main points, which aren't readily apparent in Bill Patrick's scintillating commentary:



* Armstrong's in better position than ever.

After three years of controlling the rollicking peloton, Armstrong's figured out how to ride the first part of the race. As Cyril Guimard (who not even I'm dumb enough to bet against) said, Armstrong hasn't had to stick his nose in the wind for more than 100 meters out of 1400km so far. ONCE's been working like dogs, burning up Joseba Beloki to keep Galdeano in yellow. Relatively fresh and rested, Armstrong's in better position than in his three previous victories. Relax, pour a bit of Lagavulin and I'll do the math for you:



2001, Stage 9, Pontarlier - Aix-les-Bains:

The day before the race hits Alpe d'Huez. Because Armstrong stupidly let a break on Stage 8 gain more than a half-hour, he's in 27th place, 35 minutes down. Those Tour observers old enough to remember how to pronounce Roger Walkowiak's name were definitely interested to see if Andrei Kivilev could hold his 13-minute advantage to Paris.



But that was an anomaly. Let's look further back in time:

2000, Stage 9, Agen - Dax:

The day before the race goes up the Hautacam, and Paolo Bettini wins the day. Armstrong's in 16th, 5:54 down.



1999, Avesnes-sur-Helpe - Thionville:

Armstrong will take control on tomorrow's individual time trial in Metz, but today he's in fifth overall, 54 seconds down.



Note that Armstrong, like the grand intimidator he is, loves to make his strength known on the first mountain stage; in all three Tours he's attacked hard on the first day in the mountains, either winning the stage or taking yellow. In 1999 he attacked while in yellow and positively killed his competitors' spirit.



So that's the first bit. Here's what sets it up:

What was impossible to see on television was how the wind increased over the course of the day. Botero, starting in 30th, went roughly 20 minutes before Armstrong, and the winds began to pick up shortly thereafter. And Armstrong lost to Botero by 42 seconds in a slightly shorter time trial in the Dauphine-Libere. 31 seconds inside of a month. Hmmm.



Finally, and here's the nut of the thing--if you made it this far you're to be commended, and you are welcome to use this knowledge to win money, humiliate your enemies and impress members of the opposite sex.



You might've noticed Armstrong's cadence. Everyone notices Armstrong's cadence. We're all experts in The Spin now, as much as we are The Look. One commentator (I forget who right now--you'll have to remain nameless) noted that the cadence was a bit high for a time trial--110-120 rpm. That's a lot of spinning for a time trial over flattish terrain into wind, where the parcours will favor power riding, butt back in the saddle and cranking a big gear.



Look at Botero--rolling a positively huge gear, his shoulders impassively still as his muscled upper body cranked on the handlebar hard enough that his mechanic must've wondered whether he'd tightened it enough. Armstrong, by comparison, was about ready to burn out the grease in his bottom bracket. His shoulders rocked a bit and he obviously labored a bit with the high cadence on the final kilometers--don't let the Armstrong fan-niks fool you; he didn't pull any punches today. Botero won square.



But that hardly matters, and Armstrong isn't that upset about ending his streak of time trial wins. Why? The point is this, friends, and it's breathtakingly freaking simple:



Armstrong isn't out to win time trials this year.



Look at the cadence again. It's built for the mountains, of which there are plenty this year. Starting Thursday, seven out of the final 10 stages feature at least one Category 1 climb. It's hills right up until the Stage 19 time trial--pretty much non-stop, and the last day into Paris isn't going to matter at all.



Lance's spin, constructed with painstaking care along with coach Chris Carmichael, has been tweaked this year for one thing and one thing only: kicking ass in the mountains. It's not about the time trials. The idea behind the spin is that by spinning faster, Armstrong places more of the load on his superb cardiovascular system--his heart is a third larger than an average man's. That places less load on his legs, which, coincidentally, are capable of cranking out nearly 500 watts of power under maximal effort. Lance will spin along in the mountains, with his Postal teammates trading attacks with ONCE until the group is whittled down. Then he'll shift up a gear and charge away because he hasn't been muscling his way over the mountains all day.



The first two days feature mountaintop finishes. (In case you're not familiar with the La Mongie finish on Thursday, that's because it usually goes by the name Tourmalet; this year the race finishes at the Mongie ski lift station rather than descending to a finish town.)



Armstrong loves mountaintop finishes--this year he's got Mongie, Plateau du Beille, Ventoux, Les Deux Alpes and La Plagne to work with. Given his uncharacteristic loss of a time trial, the Spanish riders' blood will be up. They'll charge out into the ring like a bullish prizefighter intent on a first-round knockdown. And woe to them.



For that is the moment when a light-footed Armstrong will cock his head slightly sideways, judging the movements of his opponents, and lay into them with a strike like Mike Tyson back in the days before he developed a taste for ears and Lennox Lewis' children, and Galdeano, Botero and the rest will lie dazed on the canvas, wondering what the HELL that was that just hit them.



Given the fact that even an Armstrong not out for blood in the time trials managed second on a course that didn't favor his style, well, you do the math. He'll exit the mountains with a minutes-large lead over second place and be untouchable in the final race against the clock.



On paper, Botero and Galdeano are the best poised to challenge Lance in the hills. And Galdeano will fight gamely. He hung well with Armstrong at Midi-Libre, but couldn't really hold Armstrong on the toughest stage to Sete. And last year he gave up big time in the mountains to Lance in the Tour--4:03 on Alpe d'Huez, 1:24 on Ax-les-Thermes, 2:52 on Pla d'Adet, and 1:22 on Luz Ardiden (when Lance wasn't trying to win the day, just mark Ullrich)--all mountaintop finishes. Curiously, Galdeano's best result last year came in the final time trial, when he finished second to Armstrong, 1:24 off the pace. By that time, though, he'd already bled more than 12 minutes total.



Botero showed signs of returning to the form that won him the Tour's climber's jersey in 2000 when he finished second (on the same time) to teammate Oscar Sevilla in the Classique des Alpes. But that was a one-day race, against a smallish field. And days later in the Dauphine-Libere, he dropped 17:48 to Armstrong on the pivotal stage to Morzine, when a cautious Armstrong attacked on the Joux Plane, showing he hasn't beat his biggest weakness: the bad day.



Even in the year he won the polka-dot jersey Botero was no match for Lance in the mountains: 12:40 down on Hautacam in a spectacular blowup, :48 on Ventoux (again, against an Armstrong only defending the race lead). Although he won the stage to Briancon by 2:51 over Armstrong, it's telling that he finished with Armstrong on the 16th stage to Morzine, a parcours similar to the one this year where he dropped nearly 18 minutes to Armstrong in the Dauphine. And this year Botero's upper body is thick and muscular; those are dead-weight pounds in the hills compared with the greyhound, chiseled lean of Armstrong and other climbers. Botero can hang for a time, but as he showed on the Hautacam in 2000 and the Dauphine this year, he'll crack--one bad day can ruin your whole Tour.



Others will challenge in the mountains--Haimar Zubeldia, Denis Menchov, Francisco Mancebo, Tyler Hamilton, Levi Leipheimer maybe, and others, but no one has the mix Armstrong has: best in the hills, damn near best in the time trial.



A few other notes about Thursday: In a delightful bit of tag-team, watch also for young American revelation Floyd Landis to animate. Postal team director Johan Bruyneel instructed him (and Roberto Heras, Viatcheslav Ekimov and Jose Luis Rubiera) to ride the time trial at 90 percent so they'd have some legs to cover the attacks in the mountains. Victor Hugo Pena will stay at Lance's side. Eki will probably burn faster than a Colorado forest, so it'll be up to Chechu, Roberto and Floyd to cover the big ones.



Thursday and Friday should be a continuation of Stage 8's cat-and-mouse game between Postal and ONCE, where each would get a rider in a break and watch the other chase it down, and it'll prove to be most enjoyable as the two strongest teams in the race go toe-to-toe to slug it out. ONCE is deeper, but Olano can't climb like he used to.



ONCE will hold Joseba Beloki in reserve and send riders like Serrano, Jaksche, Azevedo and Nozal up the road; all are highly enough placed that Postal will chase. Postal will counter first with Eki, an 11-time Tour veteran who will be fun to watch if he gets to chase down the rosy-cheeked Nozal and tie him to a tree like an overactive puppy.



Serrano, Jaksche and Azevedo will trade attacks with Heras, Chechu and Floyd, until all of 'em blow and Armstrong gets steely-eyed. Beloki will try, Armstrong will send Pena after him (unless Pena's gone, in which case Lance does it himself). Then Armstrong will drop the hammer on them like some holy vengeance, Botero will soil his chamois, Gonzalez de Galdeano will sink like a Spanish galleon off of Calais, and Armstrong will solo to victory, and yellow.



Bet on it.